In recent times, every time the possibility of a conclave approaches, countless speculations arise about who will be the next Pope. Lists of "papables", analyses by "experts" and betting pools circulate endlessly, but the reality is much more uncertain than it seems. History has shown that papal elections can bring great surprises, as happened with the election of John Paul II in 1978.
The case of Karol Wojtyla is a clear example of how the Holy Spirit and the internal dynamics of the conclave can lead to an unexpected election. On that occasion, two Italian cardinals started out as favorites, but the division in their support prevented either of them from reaching the necessary majority. In the end, there were two large groups that were not willing to support the rival candidate under any circumstances. It was therefore necessary to look for a non-Italian cardinal who would be accepted by a broad majority. Thus emerged the figure of a practically unknown Pole, who ended up being elected and marking the history of the Church.
Today, the situation is not much different. Of the 135 cardinal electors, many do not know each other. The absence of frequent meetings, such as consistories of cardinals, has made contact and mutual acquaintance difficult, making any prognosis even more uncertain. There are some 30 well-known cardinals, either because they work in the Roman Curia or because they have jumped into the media limelight for some particular reason, but none of them has a clear enough leadership to get the two-thirds vote quickly. That is why, despite the media's insistence on pointing out the "papables", the reality is that the election may fall to someone unexpected.
In addition to this, it must be taken into account that the media interest generated by the papal election encourages journalists to feed the debate with names and profiles of the most visible cardinals. Headlines that include the word "papable" are very tempting and readers easily fall for the "clickbait", but this does not mean that they are really the most likely. Until the voting begins and the first scrutinies take place, it will not be possible to glimpse who has real options. The dynamics of the conclave are unpredictable and until the cardinals vote several times, it will not be possible to glimpse the trend of the election.
For this reason, it is advisable to put speculation into perspective and, above all, not lose sight of the fact that in these elections, as in the history of the Church, Providence plays its role. In the end, as I said RatzingerIt will not be the Holy Spirit who will choose the Pope, but he will sustain the Church and the Pope above human strategies and predictions.
